|
*Source:
Tri-Services Multiple Listing Service (MLS)
Board Key Largo To Key West
Green
(+)
Red (-) |
Upper Keys
(Lower
Matecumbe to Key Largo)
|
Middle Keys
(7 Mile Bridge to Long Key)
|
Lower Keys
(Bay
Point to Big Pine)
|
Key
West
(Key West to Shark Key)
|
All
Areas Keys-Wide
|
|
Total
Number of Sales
as of 9/30/11: |
32%
More
524 |
8%
More
271 |
12%
More
321 |
12%
More
505 |
17%
More
1,621 |
|
$
Value of Sales
as of 9/30/11:
(in millions $) |
36%
More
$216.7MM |
10% Less
$97.5MM |
20%
More
$111.7MM |
26%
More
$244.2MM |
21%
More
$670.1MM |
|
Avg.
Days to Sell
as of 9/30/11: |
7%
More
286 |
2%
More
305 |
3%
More
242 |
7%
More
164 |
5%
More
249 |
|
Sale
Price to
Original List Price
as of 9/30/11: |
1%
More
74.81% |
17%
More
73.39% |
11%
More
88.43% |
5%
More
81.63% |
8%
More
79.57% |
|
Sale
Price to
Final List Price
as of 9/30/11: |
1% Less
88.63% |
1%
More
90.47% |
8%
More
97.45% |
No
Change
94.55% |
2%
More
92.78% |
|
Avg.
Sales Price
as of 9/30/11: |
3%
More
$413K |
17% Less
$359K |
7%
More
$348K |
12%
More
$483K |
3%
More
$413K |
|
Pending Transactions
as of 9/30/11: |
39%
More
569 |
19%
More
302 |
26%
More
366 |
10%
More
527 |
23%
More
1,764 |
|
Number
of Properties
For Sale
as of 9/30/11: |
18% Less
1,064 |
17% Less
658 |
22% Less
544 |
14% Less
883 |
17% Less
3,149 |
|
Months
of Inventory
as of 9/30/11: |
38% Less
18 |
23% Less
22 |
31% Less
15 |
23% Less
16 |
29% Less
17 |
|
Avg.
List Price
Properties For Sale
as of 9/30/11: |
2% Less
$750K |
3% Less
$685K |
8% Less
$567K |
14% Less
$737K |
7% Less
$701K |
|
Sales for the first nine
months of 2011 increased
+17%
to 1,621 from
1,341 last year, which exceeds the
sales total of 1,208 for the
same time frame in 2006 and every year
afterward. The lowest total for the first nine
months of the year was 913 in
2008.
The $413K Average Sale
Price (ASP) at the end of September was
+3% over the
$401K for that period last
year. Similar to Q1 and Q2 in 2011, this is the
first time the ASP has increased during the
first three quarters of the year since 2006 when
it was $800K. The
$413K today is a reduction of
-48% during the
past five years which puts The Keys’ ASP back to
the price range of 2003.
The Keys-wide Dollar Value of Sales
also rose +21%
to $670.1MM compared
to $555.2MM for the first nine
months of 2010. The Dollar
Value of Sales had declined yearly from 2006
through 2009, falling
-50% during this period. For all of
2010 it rose +5%
over 2009.
The Sale Price-to-Original List Price
(OLP/SP) increased +8%
to 79.57% compared to
73.77% during the first nine months of
2011. The OLP/SP compares the sale price of the
property to the list price of the property at
the time it first came on the market versus the
list price at the time the contract was
written. It provides a measure of the
difference between many sellers’ initial list
price and the market price acceptable to
buyers. The low point was 62.49%
during 2009.
The Sale Price-to-Final List Price
(FLP/SP) of 92.78% rose
+2%
from 90.84% in 2010. The FLP/SP
compares the sale price of the property to the
list price of the property at the time the
contract was written instead of the time the
property was first listed, and reflects the
average discount from the Final List Price that
buyers, on average, expect. The low point of
87.10% also occurred for 2009.
The Sale Price to Original List Price and
Sale Price to Final List Price ratios reflect
how well buyers are aligned with the prices
sellers set, or, if one subtracts the ratios
from 100%, what the “average discount” is that
buyers expect from the original and final sales
prices. The discounts currently are 20.43% and
7.22% respectively. These discounts are
significantly less than what buyers could
anticipate in recent years and are approximately
the levels of discount experienced in a seller’s
market.
Average Days to Sell
increased to 249 days, up
+3%
over the nine months of 2010 which required
242 days on the market.
Pending Transactions provide
a forecast for closed sales over the next two to
three months as they are properties that have an
agreed-upon contract and are in the process of
completing the contingencies of that contract
such as inspections, financing, title search,
etc., prior to the agreed closing date, which
tends to be from 15 to 90 days. Keys-wide
Pending Transactions increased
+23%
compared to the first nine months of 2010, going
from 1,430 to 1,764
in 2011. That is the highest total since
1,751 on September 30, 2005,
after being as low as 1,099
during that period in 2008. There are currently
more pending transactions awaiting closing than
have closed so far in 2011.
The 3,149 Properties For Sale
on September 30, 2011 was a drop of
-17% from
3,811 in 2010 and is a
-38% reduction
from the peak of 5,084 in March
2007, and is the lowest number of listings for
sale since 2,702 on September
30, 2005.
The Average Listed Price
(ALP) also declined, -7%
to $701K compared to
$751K in September of 2010. The ALP
peak of $990K occurred at the
end of 2007, and has since fallen
-29%.
The 17 Months of Inventory
(MOI) from 25 at the end of Q3
2010 is a -29%
drop, continuing down from 49
and 48 months on September 30,
2007 and 2008, respectively. The 2011 reduction
in MOI results from a simultaneous increase in
number of sales and decreasing inventory of
properties for sale.
Market Area
Details
Number of Sales: All
Keys Market Areas had increased sales. The
Upper Keys led with a
+32% increase
to 524 from 396.
The Lower Keys and Key
West were up
+12% to 321 from
286 ,and 505
versus 450 during 2010.
Middle Keys sales increased
+8% to
271 versus 252
last year.
Average Sale Price:
The Middle Keys was the only
market that declined,
-17% to $359K,
compared to $432K over the
first nine months of 2010, and $463K
in 2009. The Lower Keys
ASP led the increases at
+7% to
$348K compared to $289K
for 2010 after being $400K
during the same period in 2009. Key
West’s ASP surpassed both 2010 and
2009, up +12%
to $483K from $429K
last year and $474K in 2009.
The Upper Keys ASP
increased +3%
to $413K compared to
$402K last year and $503K
in 2009.
Dollar Value of Sales:
The Upper Keys, with
the largest increase in number of sales and a
slight increase in ASP, generated
$216.7MM in Dollar Value of Sales,
+36% versus
the $159.4MM in 2010. Key
West, +26% to
$244.2M over $193.4MM
in 2010 benefited from the
+12% increase
in Average Sale Price (ASP) together with the
increased number of sales. The Lower
Keys Dollar Value grew
+20% to
$111.7M compared to
$93.4MM last year. The only decline
was in the Middle Keys,
-10% to
$97.5MM from $108.8MM
in 2010 due to a -17%
decrease in ASP.
Pending Sales: The
Pending Sales for the
Upper Keys market increased
+39% to
569 from 408 last
year. The Lower Keys, with 366
Pending Sales, was
+26% beyond the 291
for Q3 2010. Middle Keys
Pending Sales rose by
+19% to 302 compared
to 253 during the first nine
months of 2010. Key West
Pending Sales of 527 were
+10% above
478 in 2010.
Average Days to Sell:
The Upper Keys and Key
West increased
+7% to
286 and 164
days respectively, compared to 267
and 153 days last year. The
Lower Keys rose
+3% at
242 versus 234
as of September 30, 2010. The Middle
Keys were at 305 days,
+2% over
300 in 2010. Key West is
consistently lower as the MLS provider for Key
West measures from the listing date to the date
of the contract while the other Keys areas are
measured to the date of closing.
Number of Properties For Sale:
All markets saw declining listing inventories
from January through September. The
Lower Keys was down
-22% with
544 vs. 701
last year. The Upper Keys was
down -18% at
1,064 compared to 1,294
in 2010. The Middle Keys
total reduced -17%
to 658 versus 790
while Key West listings dropped
-14% to
883 compared to 1,026
in 2010.
Average List Price: Key
West had the biggest reduction down
-14% to
$737K compared to $859K
in 2010 and $955K for 2009.
The Lower Keys dropped
-8% to
$567K from $613K in
2010. It was $596K in 2009.
Upper Keys List Prices dropped
-2% to
$750 from $766K a year
ago and $901K in 2009. The
Middle Keys declined
-3% to
$685K from $709K in
2010 which was down -10%
from $857K in 2009.
Months of Inventory (MOI):
Reflecting the increase in number of sales and
reduction in properties on the market, all
market areas’ MOI declined with the biggest
drop, -38% in
the Upper Keys at 18
MOI compared to 29 in 2010.
The Lower Keys went from
22 to 15 MOI, a
-31%
reduction. Both the
Middle Keys and Key West
MOI dropped -23%
to 22 and 16
compared to 28 and 21
in 2010, respectively.
What do the Numbers Forecast?
With +17%
more sales, prices stabilizing with slight
increases coupled with
-17% fewer properties for sale and
+23% more
sales pending, the market forecast continues to
indicate, as it did at the end of Q3, that the
fourth quarter will be the most positive it has
been in a number of years.


Is there another wave of Foreclosures or
Short Sales on the horizon in The Keys? The
short answer is “NO.”
The chart above displays the percentage of all
Keys listings and sales that are either bank
owned or short sales, i.e., the distressed
properties market. The blue line represents the
percentage of all listed distressed properties
and the red line all sold distressed
properties. Though the chart starts in 2008,
the statistics prior to 2009 are not reliable as
the Multiple Listing Services in The Keys did
not require Short Sales or Bank Owned properties
to be so designated until 2009.
Distressed property listings peaked at the
end of the fourth quarter in 2009 with
27% of all listings being
distressed and has gradually declined over the
ensuing 21 months to 7%
for Q3 2011 which alternatively means that
93% of the properties on
the market currently are not distressed. Of
note is that the total of all listings on the
market declined -16%
during those 21 months while the
reduction for distressed listings was
-74%.
Distressed Sales also have been a significant
factor in the Keys market peaking at
48% of all sales for Q3 2010 and
then declining to 28%
during Q2 and Q3 in 2011. There were
+17% more
sales of all properties Keys-wide year-to-date
than in YTD Q3 2010, yet the overall reduction
in the market of distressed sales was
-42%.
Distressed properties are selling at a rate
four times higher than non-distressed properties
as buyers perceive that these properties reflect
the better buying opportunities. As the
inventory of distressed properties continues to
be depleted and fewer new distressed properties
come on the market, as we anticipate, and there
are fewer listings overall, market forces will
drive prices upward.
Therefore, our answer to the question at the
beginning of this discussion is clearly
supported by the numbers. Our view is that the
market has absorbed the vast majority of
distressed properties in The Keys and there is
not another wave of them about to appear within
the market in the months ahead. As evidenced by
the chart in the “Predicting The Future”
article, the Keys’ market activity began its
decline in 2005 well before most markets and
before the subprime monetary crises. Because
The Keys real estate markets were affected early
on (which was exacerbated by Hurricane Wilma),
and because our intrinsic growth and development
restrictions did not allow for overbuilding, the
Keys have had longer to recover and did not also
have to recover from the burden of unsold new
housing in addition to existing homes as was the
case in many other areas of Florida.

The information presented in this chart shows
how it’s possible to predict the future of The
Keys real estate market with some confidence.
Starting in 2003, the chart presents, by
quarter, Listings (blue line with blue numbers),
Sales (red line with red numbers), Pending
Transactions (green line with black numbers) and
Average Sales Price (brown dotted line). For
ease of reference, the light blue vertical line
marks the third quarter of each year and the
dashed faint red line aligns January of each
year. Also shown are two important events:
first, the arrival of Hurricane Wilma (orange
dotted vertical line) in late October 2005;
second, the turning point (yellow arrow) for The
Keys real estate market at the end of 2008.
We start by focusing on the relationship of
listings, sales and pending transactions prior
to Wilma; the area to the left of the dotted
yellow Wilma line. Notice the inverse
relationship between listings and sales: when
sales are up, listings are down. The Blue
(Listings) and Red (Sales) curves are mirror
images of one another. That rule of real estate
is reflected across the entire chart. During
the pre-Wilma period, sales were occurring at
record levels. The number of pending
transactions (sales over the next 30 to 90
days), however, were consistently less than the
number of sales. Subsequent sales, therefore,
had to decline.
Today, with 20/20 hindsight, we can see that the
decline in sales commenced during the third
quarter of 2004: the number of sales each
succeeding quarter was less than the same
quarter in the preceding year, pending
transactions continued to lag sales, and,
therefore, the number of sales declined and the
number of listings started to increase.
Hurricane Wilma accelerated the increase in
listings and the drop in sales which resulted in
the listing and sales lines crossing.
Next, concentrate on the period from
Hurricane Wilma to the “Turning Point” and
notice that listings remained at record high
levels with sales at record low levels, and
pending transactions typically lagged behind the
number of sales until 2008.
Now, focus on the period from “Turning Point” to
Q3 2011. This period, starting in the fourth
quarter of 2008 begins the steady downward trend
in listings and the point where pendings exceed
sales in every quarter except one. We can see
by reviewing the historic relationships shown on
this chart between listings, sales and pendings
that as listings go down and pendings exceed
sales, that sales must inevitably go up. The
trends of this chart, accordingly, provide a
forecast of the future of the Keys real estate
market. In the months ahead, listings will
continue to decrease due to sales increasing
which is anticipated by pending transactions
exceeding sales month after month.
Consequently, we believe that the remainder of
2011 and 2012 will see a continued increase in
sales with decreasing listings. This will
ultimately lead to increased prices reflected in
the average sales price curve which follows the
sales trend line by a few quarters.
We have long believed (and our post-sale
surveys affirm) that we owe our success and
leadership position in Florida Keys real estate
to our unblinking focus on client service.
It’s why we prefer to work with you as single
agents rather than in the transactional agent
role that virtually every other Keys real estate
company adopts. It’s why we have extended
office hours and offer live chat on our website
from 6 a.m. to 1 a.m. seven days a week. It’s
the biggest reason why we have more Realtors®
among the Top 100 Keys-wide than the next six
companies combined.
There are so many elements contributing to
"client service." One of the less-visible but
vitally important elements is the technology
infrastructure underpinning all our
communications. At a time when close to 90
percent of buyers begin their home search on the
Internet and use GPS-enabled SmartPhones to
instantly locate and learn about nearby
properties for sale, our agents must have the
capability to take advantage of all
opportunities to connect seller with buyer, and
thrive within this new paradigm.
Accordingly, Coldwell Banker Schmitt has just
completed an upgrade of its data network
migrating from T-1 to a new, state-of-the-art,
Metro Ethernet wide area network linking each of
its offices and the Internet with bandwidth many
times faster than T-1, and with the highest
level of stability and performance available.
Web research, email downloads and video uploads
are lightning-quick.
One of the most important objectives of
Realtors every day is successfully managing
your access to them and their communications
with you as well as with prospects and
professional associates. In order to streamline
the process, CBSREC sales associates and staff
now have a new, IP-based phone system giving
them unparalleled flexibility in call and
message management.
We’ve also added new multifunction machines
to each office that combine copying, scanning,
printing and faxing with ultra-high printing
speeds. A secure printing function enables full
confidentiality for sensitive documents.
Coldwell Banker Schmitt is committed to
delivering the finest home selling and buying
experience to you, our customer, and these
infrastructure investments will help our people
to continue delivering on that promise.
Coldwell Banker Schmitt
continues to outpace the competition Keys-wide
for listings and sales with more sales than the
next four companies combined despite the recent
merger of three competitors (C-21 Keysearch,
Schwartz Properties & Prudential Keyside
Properties) into C-21 Schwartz (as shown in
following chart). For Sellers, it’s our
well-proven “Every Day Until It Is Sold”
marketing program that sets us apart and for
Buyers, it’s our “Points of Difference” programs
that tailors our agents’ services to help
realize their Keys real estate dreams. Each
program includes a signed Services Guarantee
commitment of performance. Those programs,
supported by the advanced technology systems and
equipment described below, provide every client
with the high level of service they expect and
deserve, thereby ensuring Coldwell Banker
Schmitt continues to be known as “The Most
Trusted Name in Florida Keys Real Estate” as it
has for the past 56 years.
|
|
|
Listed
Properties |
Sold Sales
Sides |
$ Volume of
Sales Sides |
|
Offices |
Company |
Rank |
# |
Mkt. Share |
Rank |
# |
Mkt. Share |
Rank |
Value |
Mkt. Share |
|
6 |
Coldwell Banker Schmitt
|
#1 |
763 |
24% |
#1 |
763 |
24% |
#1 |
$323M |
24% |
|
8 |
C-21 Schwartz |
#2 |
416 |
13% |
#2 |
401 |
12% |
#2 |
$137M |
12% |
|
1 |
Truman & Co. |
#4 |
147 |
5% |
#6 |
102 |
3% |
#3 |
$86M |
5% |
|
1 |
Prudential K & G |
#3 |
208 |
7% |
#3 |
147 |
5% |
#4 |
$53M |
4% |
|
1 |
American Caribbean
Middle Keys |
#6 |
92 |
3% |
#5 |
114 |
4% |
#5 |
$46M |
4% |
|
2 |
Realty World Freewheeler |
#5 |
137 |
4% |
#4 |
136 |
4% |
#6 |
$44M |
3% |

 |
Guy Lombardo with
his brothers along with Phil
Sadowski in Marathon in the 1950s.
The current day Cabana Breezes was
then known as Lombardo’s
Restaurant. The Florida Keys
Concert Association is bringing the
famous Guy Lombardo Band back to the
Keys 50+ years later for repeat
performances in Marathon and the
Upper Keys early 2012.
|
|
If you would like a FREE
Comparative Market Analysis,
contact one of our five offices at the
toll free numbers below,
or complete the request form at
http://www.realestatefloridakeys.com/freeMarketAnalysis.html.
|
Key Largo |
305-872-5266 |
|
Islamorada |
305-872-5266 |
| Middle
Keys |
305-872-5266 |
| Lower
Keys |
305-872-5266 |
| Key
West |
305-872-5266 |
|
We are “The Most Trusted
Name In Florida Keys Real Estate.”
Coldwell Banker Schmitt Real Estate
Co.
Main Office
11100 Overseas Hwy.
Marathon, FL 33050
Office: 305-872-5266
Fax: 305-743-7012
info@davewileyproperties.com
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